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The 12-Day War with Iran: Achievements, Losses, Advantages, Disadvantages, and What Remains Open

After some minor hiccups in the first few hours, the ceasefire between Iran and Israel officially took effect today, and it appears that Operation “Rising Lion” - or the “12-Day War” - has come to an end.

What did each side achieve? What didn’t they achieve? And what comes next?

Let’s start with the numbers:

• Casualties and Injuries

Israeli side:
28 killed
Over 3,000 injured

Iranian side:
More than 600 killed (hundreds of them military personnel)
Around 5,000 injured (according to preliminary data from Iran’s Ministry of Health — this number is likely to rise)

• Extent of Direct Damage

Israeli side: Most of the damage was to civilian homes - hundreds of residences destroyed by Iranian missile strikes, leaving thousands homeless
Minor damage to strategic sites such as the Haifa oil refineries and the Ashdod power station - no noticeable operational impact
Limited damage to military facilities

Iranian side:
Significant damage to nuclear facilities
Major damage to factories connected to the nuclear program
Heavy damage to Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure: more than half of its missile launchers (approx. 200) destroyed
Over 1,000 ballistic missiles eliminated from Iran’s inventory
Significant damage to missile-related production plants - most were destroyed
Major damage to at least dozens of Iranian military bases
Symbolic strikes on government sites in Tehran (e.g., Palestine Square, Broadcasting Authority building)
Heavy damage to security force headquarters in the capital (police, Basij, intelligence, Evin Prison)
Iranian aircraft and helicopters destroyed on the ground
Strikes on airports
Destruction of many weapons depots
Destruction of drone stockpiles
Iranian air defense systems destroyed
Hundreds of residential buildings damaged in targeted strikes and attacks on nearby terror sites

• Targeted Killings of Senior Figures

Israeli side: No senior Israeli officials were killed during the operation; most casualties were civilians

Iranian side: 15–20 top nuclear scientists were killed Over 20 high-ranking military officials eliminated, including leaders of the army, senior Revolutionary Guard commanders, and top officials from the "Khatam al-Anbiya" coordinating body

Notable assassinations:
Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards
Commander of "Khatam al-Anbiya" (the de facto Chief of General Staff) — killed twice (i.e., his replacement was also eliminated)
Chief of the Iranian Armed Forces
Commander of the Aerospace Forces of the Revolutionary Guards
Commander of the "Palestine Corps" in Quds Force — one of the architects of the October 7th attacks

• Strategic Achievements by Israel:

1. Crippling blow to Iran’s nuclear program
2. Crippling blow to Iran’s missile program
3. Achieved strategic surprise over one of its toughest enemies and conducted high-intensity warfare despite the long range (about 1,500 km from home)
4. Israel’s deterrent power significantly strengthened — seen as a regional military superpower, possibly even global
5. The operation followed over a year and a half of prolonged conflict on seven fronts
6. The U.S. actively and directly joined the war alongside Israel
7. Israel gained rare and widespread legitimacy from many nations — publicly and behind the scenes
8. All Israeli aircraft returned safely
9. The “head of the snake” was bitten in its own den — Iran’s doctrine of waging war via proxy forces collapsed; proxies remained silent throughout the operation
10. Israel demonstrated unprecedented missile interception capabilities across various launch types
11. A short operation in terms of duration yet with far-reaching achievements despite the geographic distance

• Iranian Regime's Remaining Assets / Unresolved Challenges for Israel:

1. The Iranian regime did not fall (yet)
2. The regime’s aspirations to develop nuclear weapons remain; the program was damaged but not erased
3. Iran’s ambitions for missile development remain; the infrastructure was hit hard but not eliminated
4. Iran’s goal to destroy Israel remains unchanged
5. Iran will continue to operate under cover and deceive the West to rebuild its nuclear and missile capabilities
6. A future Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear/missile programs will not be easy — even under a Trump administration, let alone a different one
7. The future of Western sanctions on Iran remains unclear
8. The fate of 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60% is unknown

• Summary:

Israel achieved a tremendous success. If two years ago you had seen a short film showing what happened in Iran over the past 12 days, you would have thought it was science fiction. Many did not believe this was possible - even in recent weeks.

This was a historic operation by any standard, certainly in the history of the State of Israel. It required tremendous imagination to plan. As a people, Israelis have every right to pat themselves on the back.

That said, Iran’s ambitions, cunning, and deceit have not changed. They are already working to rebuild what was destroyed and planning years ahead.

Someone will need to keep enforcing the red lines again and again. This will be far more difficult than enforcement against Hezbollah - in terms of distance, violations of sovereignty, international legitimacy, and intelligence/military complexity.

This challenge lies before us and will remain until the current Iranian regime falls.

Israel must now lay the foundations for clear, enforceable rules of engagement - while there is a supportive president in the White House, one who views enforcement in a way that is close to Israel’s perspective.

Establishing principles for enforcement is currently the most important issue for Israel regarding the Iranian threat - a threat that has been mowed down but is likely to grow again.

A new reality must be created - one that Iran gets used to, and the world accepts: an enforcement routine.